* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 10/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 46 50 50 48 45 41 41 39 39 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 46 50 50 48 45 41 41 39 39 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 37 40 40 40 39 36 33 30 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 5 4 3 7 16 18 16 17 16 17 20 20 18 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 -9 -9 -8 -2 2 4 9 6 3 4 SHEAR DIR 73 45 59 68 76 88 118 139 143 161 188 203 226 249 261 297 345 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 147 147 148 148 151 153 154 152 153 154 152 150 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 51 53 53 53 51 50 45 42 44 46 49 53 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -12 -13 -17 -13 -23 -15 -19 -14 5 14 12 9 -4 -15 -12 -3 200 MB DIV -15 -17 1 20 26 -5 29 16 -2 -14 -15 -42 -41 -20 0 16 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1930 1925 1906 1886 1857 1781 1687 1570 1460 1374 1320 1343 1445 1609 1792 1956 2104 LAT (DEG N) 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.3 9.0 9.8 10.5 11.0 11.2 10.9 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.0 117.8 117.6 117.4 116.9 116.4 115.7 115.0 114.4 113.9 113.9 114.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 3 1 3 6 8 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 62 62 60 57 52 41 29 23 24 23 23 23 28 35 36 58 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 20. 29. 36. 40. 44. 47. 50. 52. 51. 49. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -5. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 21. 25. 25. 23. 20. 16. 16. 14. 14. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.4 118.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 10/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.56 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.4% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 17.0% 8.0% 1.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 12.9% 8.5% 0.6% 0.4% 7.1% 5.6% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 10/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##