* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 10/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 46 43 44 46 51 55 57 60 64 67 70 73 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 46 43 44 46 51 55 57 60 64 67 70 73 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 41 38 37 37 39 43 47 51 55 58 62 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 17 16 13 12 14 11 9 5 6 5 8 9 14 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 0 2 2 1 -1 0 1 4 5 4 -4 -1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 103 97 101 107 107 108 133 153 183 139 168 217 234 195 189 176 186 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.1 28.0 28.1 29.0 27.4 28.5 29.0 29.6 29.6 29.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 144 148 151 152 143 145 155 139 151 156 162 162 161 155 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 74 73 76 79 81 77 78 75 70 67 67 65 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 15 13 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 47 50 41 44 53 84 64 50 35 16 9 10 11 3 7 7 200 MB DIV 101 112 114 114 88 98 42 71 50 26 -16 -64 -49 -2 25 26 17 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 2 1 4 5 2 0 -1 -1 4 LAND (KM) 331 297 260 217 170 132 151 232 369 509 673 756 860 945 1012 1089 1210 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.1 11.9 11.5 10.7 10.1 9.6 9.3 9.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.0 90.4 90.0 89.5 89.1 89.0 90.2 91.9 93.9 96.4 99.1 102.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 4 1 3 7 10 11 13 14 13 11 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 8 10 15 19 20 9 8 15 4 14 14 16 16 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 39. 41. 41. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 17. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.0 91.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 10/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.59 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 20.5% 16.4% 13.2% 8.2% 19.4% 16.1% 9.7% Logistic: 1.7% 13.8% 4.3% 2.7% 1.0% 2.9% 2.8% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 4.0% 11.8% 7.1% 5.4% 3.1% 7.6% 6.5% 4.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 20.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 12.0% 6.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 10/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##