* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 10/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 44 41 41 42 49 52 57 60 61 64 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 44 41 41 42 49 52 57 60 61 64 67 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 45 41 39 37 38 39 40 43 46 52 58 59 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 14 16 18 20 18 15 11 8 8 8 11 17 23 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 4 0 -3 -1 0 3 2 0 -4 -3 -3 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 96 100 85 99 108 126 146 161 154 142 127 150 161 154 159 163 162 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.3 27.8 28.8 28.4 27.6 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.5 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 143 144 144 141 153 150 141 155 159 162 161 160 152 151 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 76 77 78 80 79 75 76 69 65 60 58 52 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 14 12 13 14 16 15 15 15 14 15 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 41 35 33 34 35 56 52 39 28 17 20 17 26 31 31 42 53 200 MB DIV 112 109 98 100 101 59 75 50 44 11 -7 -40 -10 7 40 20 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 4 8 9 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 298 274 254 223 192 174 244 345 568 649 769 885 1007 1058 1080 1166 1338 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.0 11.6 11.2 10.5 10.0 9.6 9.5 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.1 90.6 90.2 90.0 89.8 90.0 90.8 92.8 95.5 98.0 100.5 103.2 106.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 2 7 12 14 13 12 14 13 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 9 10 12 10 6 12 11 5 15 14 16 17 17 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 34. 37. 38. 37. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -7. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -4. -3. 4. 7. 12. 15. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.2 91.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 10/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.53 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 18.6% 15.3% 12.2% 7.5% 16.8% 14.2% 8.1% Logistic: 0.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 1.7% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.4% 5.5% 4.2% 2.5% 5.7% 5.3% 3.4% DTOPS: 5.0% 13.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 10/31/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##