* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 11/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 12 14 23 33 33 40 39 35 38 34 41 46 61 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 3 8 13 9 3 5 3 7 10 2 3 6 8 -3 7 SHEAR DIR 296 288 264 250 249 249 267 271 266 262 261 256 255 243 266 277 286 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 143 144 145 146 147 148 147 144 137 138 136 134 132 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 42 42 41 41 43 49 51 48 46 46 43 45 47 48 45 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 3 1 2 -5 -19 -26 -36 -55 -24 -16 -2 9 21 27 39 39 200 MB DIV -32 -22 -9 -1 -10 -19 16 19 -20 -23 -47 -22 -2 20 -18 -4 -37 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 4 3 3 6 7 4 8 9 13 LAND (KM) 1315 1295 1275 1256 1251 1256 1262 1281 1307 1421 1592 1770 1963 2128 2235 2308 2378 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.1 13.5 13.0 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.9 115.9 115.9 115.9 116.0 116.6 117.3 118.1 118.7 119.8 121.4 123.4 125.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 7 10 11 10 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 14 14 11 8 3 4 3 3 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 41. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -10. -19. -27. -34. -40. -44. -44. -43. -43. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -4. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -19. -24. -29. -34. -39. -41. -38. -34. -28. -25. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 115.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 11/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.58 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 11/01/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##