* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/02/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 47 49 51 54 59 61 59 54 50 48 45 43 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 47 49 51 54 59 61 59 54 50 48 45 43 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 43 43 46 50 54 56 54 47 39 31 25 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 7 7 10 10 5 11 15 24 28 27 32 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 -2 -4 0 0 2 8 8 5 5 3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 203 189 204 242 270 256 217 210 222 219 242 240 245 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.7 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 145 145 148 154 159 158 157 156 152 151 146 147 146 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 77 75 70 70 71 65 56 55 52 49 47 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 12 12 11 13 14 15 15 14 13 13 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 7 -1 -3 3 4 24 15 6 23 27 39 52 47 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -7 -8 -13 -41 -46 -20 44 68 76 30 2 15 -10 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 9 6 6 2 2 0 1 2 2 1 5 8 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 362 436 501 590 702 856 982 1074 1155 1235 1323 1334 1353 1385 1434 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 11.8 11.3 10.9 10.5 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.4 13.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 96.1 97.7 99.3 101.0 104.1 106.9 109.1 111.1 112.9 114.5 116.1 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 16 17 16 14 12 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 8 6 9 15 15 15 15 18 20 23 9 11 10 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 40. 39. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 16. 14. 9. 5. 3. -0. -2. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.2 94.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/02/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 18.8% 14.5% 11.6% 8.0% 16.7% 0.0% 8.2% Logistic: 3.5% 28.0% 7.2% 4.2% 1.0% 2.6% 0.4% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 15.9% 7.3% 5.3% 3.0% 6.5% 0.1% 4.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/02/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##