* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/03/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 42 43 45 50 49 45 38 33 29 26 27 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 42 43 45 50 49 45 38 33 29 26 27 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 42 43 45 49 50 48 41 33 26 22 19 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 6 16 27 29 28 28 25 25 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 1 9 16 10 9 6 2 3 10 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 282 284 273 266 277 229 211 231 236 231 222 263 276 279 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 157 155 154 153 153 153 143 143 145 143 141 141 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 63 66 66 71 69 75 69 64 59 49 43 39 36 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 14 13 13 12 9 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -9 -13 -9 14 15 13 16 21 46 65 61 46 35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -43 -56 -51 -48 -14 28 62 78 6 20 19 14 6 -8 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -1 0 -1 -1 1 4 6 3 3 7 8 7 5 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 762 855 954 1025 1097 1212 1319 1406 1370 1343 1379 1406 1416 1455 1552 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.9 11.8 12.7 13.4 14.1 14.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.2 103.8 105.3 106.8 108.3 110.8 112.9 114.7 115.6 116.8 118.4 119.6 120.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 15 14 11 10 8 7 8 8 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 13 13 13 15 21 29 8 8 10 8 7 7 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. 37. 36. 34. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -21. -21. -19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 5. 4. 0. -6. -12. -16. -19. -18. -15. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.3 102.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/03/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -42.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 5.9% Logistic: 1.6% 12.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 4.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 4.7% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/03/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##