* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 11/04/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 45 40 42 41 39 33 28 33 31 41 36 40 34 36 37 31 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 -1 2 2 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 270 266 267 279 286 297 295 289 283 280 269 283 288 276 286 285 271 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 137 139 137 137 140 140 137 134 136 140 141 140 142 140 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 47 46 46 43 44 42 42 47 49 52 52 54 51 50 50 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -20 -24 -20 -18 -28 -30 -25 -17 0 0 3 -1 3 6 12 3 200 MB DIV 43 51 13 -6 -17 4 1 1 -8 -8 4 0 -2 -23 -14 31 89 700-850 TADV 3 1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 7 LAND (KM) 1649 1692 1722 1784 1862 2072 2303 2536 2393 2220 2113 2021 1931 1831 1698 1563 1419 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.1 13.7 12.7 11.9 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.0 123.8 124.3 124.8 125.4 127.1 129.3 131.9 134.1 135.8 136.9 137.9 138.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 5 6 8 11 13 12 9 7 5 5 5 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 7 7 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 819 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 43. 44. 43. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -17. -30. -41. -51. -58. -64. -67. -64. -58. -52. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -13. -17. -22. -28. -32. -34. -34. -29. -23. -17. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 123.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 11/04/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 11/04/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##