* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 11/04/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 36 40 46 50 54 58 63 66 67 64 61 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 28 28 27 30 35 40 45 49 53 57 60 61 59 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 27 27 27 27 33 37 41 45 51 57 62 67 68 67 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 15 10 8 8 9 10 5 4 4 6 3 18 34 44 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 0 3 3 5 10 12 5 3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 38 42 53 51 64 98 73 56 40 13 1 356 266 231 225 219 217 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 27.3 27.8 28.1 29.0 30.0 30.2 29.8 29.7 29.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 143 145 148 149 150 128 135 139 153 171 172 166 164 162 147 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 3 5 3 6 5 8 7 9 7 7 3 700-500 MB RH 84 82 82 85 86 84 81 80 79 77 74 71 72 72 71 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 78 67 58 63 62 25 -10 -26 -36 -35 0 0 2 10 -15 -38 200 MB DIV 103 102 103 84 64 56 14 -8 -23 -6 6 48 62 64 96 119 92 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 2 4 3 0 1 -4 0 -4 0 0 7 3 3 LAND (KM) 82 25 -18 -69 -87 8 105 154 193 288 255 292 298 251 170 92 71 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.6 14.1 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.2 83.8 84.5 85.2 86.8 88.5 90.6 92.9 95.2 97.6 100.1 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 8 8 8 8 9 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 16 18 25 19 18 4 6 7 14 31 45 64 33 24 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):195/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 15. 24. 32. 40. 47. 52. 57. 59. 57. 58. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 28. 33. 36. 37. 34. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 82.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 11/04/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.6% 10.1% 7.5% 5.0% 10.4% 12.8% 17.6% Logistic: 1.7% 13.5% 3.5% 1.6% 1.6% 9.7% 28.3% 73.8% Bayesian: 1.2% 11.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.0% 3.5% 90.3% Consensus: 1.5% 13.5% 4.9% 3.1% 2.2% 7.3% 14.9% 60.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 11/04/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 11/04/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 28 28 27 30 35 40 45 49 53 57 60 61 59 55 53 18HR AGO 30 29 26 26 25 28 33 38 43 47 51 55 58 59 57 53 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 28 33 38 43 47 51 55 58 59 57 53 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 22 27 32 37 41 45 49 52 53 51 47 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT