* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP192023 11/05/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 52 51 45 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 52 51 45 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 49 49 46 42 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 13 24 30 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 13 19 18 5 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 223 217 218 221 218 232 238 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 152 147 148 150 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 69 68 66 57 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 16 15 14 14 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 15 12 5 -3 21 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 65 72 81 71 -10 26 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 3 2 3 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1192 1234 1284 1323 1369 1339 1317 1305 1313 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.4 12.2 13.1 14.1 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.1 113.0 113.9 114.7 115.8 117.0 118.2 119.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 21 21 24 26 10 11 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -14. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -8. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 7. 6. -0. -12. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.4 111.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/05/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.64 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.05 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 23.3% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 40.6% 66.8% 45.2% 36.3% 2.1% 6.4% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 16.0% 49.8% 27.1% 20.1% 0.0% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 23.3% 46.6% 30.0% 18.8% 0.7% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 7.0% 7.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/05/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##