* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 27 28 30 32 35 39 41 42 42 42 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 27 28 30 32 35 39 41 42 42 42 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 24 23 24 27 31 32 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 19 20 10 4 5 13 9 9 9 17 22 28 36 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 5 8 4 0 -5 1 3 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 141 159 175 188 190 176 238 257 305 319 316 255 249 268 289 285 252 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 143 144 145 143 145 143 139 139 143 146 147 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 57 59 61 60 60 60 55 59 61 58 53 51 49 49 49 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 35 27 23 27 24 25 13 -16 -42 -42 -31 -33 -28 -21 -7 200 MB DIV 7 13 24 10 31 78 55 24 52 51 -18 -31 -33 -23 -4 30 39 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 LAND (KM) 1662 1684 1687 1691 1681 1670 1661 1667 1669 1664 1609 1526 1436 1370 1299 1184 950 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.8 11.5 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.1 118.5 118.9 119.2 119.6 119.6 119.4 119.0 118.6 118.3 118.0 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 2 0 3 2 2 3 4 3 3 4 8 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 12 13 16 16 14 11 9 7 8 10 11 12 11 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 16. 23. 29. 34. 38. 41. 43. 43. 41. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 117.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 4.4% 4.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##