* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 11/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 25 27 30 32 35 36 37 39 38 38 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 25 27 30 32 35 36 37 39 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 21 21 24 26 26 24 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 19 15 5 5 13 12 9 6 13 23 25 27 32 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -6 0 9 9 1 -5 -6 0 -1 2 5 8 7 SHEAR DIR 171 177 189 190 196 196 233 276 311 314 291 217 236 261 262 258 235 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 140 141 140 139 140 140 143 146 148 146 146 149 150 153 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -55.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 59 61 59 60 62 60 56 50 49 49 52 50 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 24 14 16 14 26 17 0 -13 -44 -42 -41 -37 -24 -7 -10 200 MB DIV 11 32 21 25 27 70 76 35 9 -9 -8 -39 -35 -14 27 33 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 LAND (KM) 1667 1669 1666 1649 1642 1605 1568 1557 1541 1490 1410 1310 1236 1151 1039 886 636 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.3 11.1 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.0 118.3 118.5 118.7 118.7 118.4 117.9 117.6 117.2 116.8 116.2 115.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 5 7 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 10 20 30 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 37. 39. 41. 42. 40. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 117.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 11/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.8% 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 4.7% 4.3% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 11/20/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##