* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 11/24/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 46 48 54 59 62 64 69 75 79 79 80 83 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 45 46 48 54 59 62 64 69 75 79 79 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 39 41 44 45 46 45 47 50 51 51 42 45 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 26 17 21 25 19 18 16 16 20 29 41 44 45 39 29 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 4 3 -1 3 5 5 5 7 14 22 1 SHEAR DIR 215 224 229 211 205 206 218 188 202 213 224 219 212 212 219 233 288 SST (C) 26.3 26.7 26.9 26.1 25.8 24.2 21.7 19.2 17.0 15.5 14.2 13.5 12.9 13.1 13.0 12.5 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 116 121 125 118 115 103 89 81 75 70 67 66 65 66 70 71 69 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.1 -56.8 -57.5 -58.0 -58.5 -58.8 -59.7 -60.7 -60.7 -59.3 -56.8 -54.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.7 4.5 4.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 45 50 53 56 59 60 64 67 67 62 61 59 44 46 62 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 18 19 19 17 18 21 23 23 21 22 26 27 26 26 32 850 MB ENV VOR 85 84 84 64 58 62 46 58 21 62 69 95 140 157 200 287 255 200 MB DIV 24 57 44 62 38 41 55 62 48 5 39 33 39 25 35 64 49 700-850 TADV 11 5 0 9 14 13 9 11 -2 -1 -15 -59 -156 -109 -78 44 23 LAND (KM) 2292 2376 2349 2205 2040 1790 1637 1486 1251 1159 1019 865 684 533 293 -13 185 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.4 26.9 27.6 28.6 31.0 34.0 38.0 42.1 45.3 47.6 49.2 50.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.6 40.7 39.4 37.8 35.8 32.0 28.9 26.5 24.5 23.4 22.7 21.7 19.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 14 18 20 20 21 23 20 14 10 9 8 9 21 26 23 HEAT CONTENT 1 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 15. 19. 24. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. 2. -9. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 3. 4. 4. 1. 1. 6. 6. 4. 2. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 34. 41. 44. 44. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.4 41.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 11/24/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.14 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 10.4% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 11/24/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 11/24/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 45 46 48 54 59 62 64 69 75 79 79 56 54 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 42 44 50 55 58 60 65 71 75 75 52 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 36 38 44 49 52 54 59 65 69 69 46 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 28 30 36 41 44 46 51 57 61 61 38 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT