* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 11/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 47 50 49 48 50 54 56 59 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 47 50 49 36 30 36 32 34 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 36 36 35 31 30 35 31 32 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 20 20 30 30 32 29 35 33 34 37 34 41 44 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 4 3 -2 0 -3 -1 1 3 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 213 209 231 224 227 235 243 269 292 305 312 312 314 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.9 23.6 23.5 22.1 21.2 18.8 16.9 16.3 16.6 17.5 24.0 24.0 23.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 98 98 90 88 80 75 73 74 77 102 101 100 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -58.5 -58.8 -58.8 -58.7 -59.5 -60.0 -60.4 -59.6 -58.6 -57.3 -56.8 -57.2 -57.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 54 51 50 47 50 54 46 40 40 39 32 26 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 17 19 19 19 16 12 11 13 16 18 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 64 59 55 44 40 47 45 36 6 -14 -9 -32 -85 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 26 35 35 38 82 57 7 2 -31 -52 -56 -84 -216 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 3 10 12 14 19 16 0 -4 8 7 24 18 19 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2184 2078 1955 1824 1698 1530 1092 622 206 -139 -190 145 -84 123 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 30.2 31.1 32.1 33.2 36.1 39.5 42.2 43.0 42.3 40.4 38.1 36.1 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.1 35.6 33.8 32.0 30.1 26.5 22.1 16.8 11.8 7.1 2.2 -3.1 -8.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 18 19 20 23 25 22 17 19 23 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 13. 14. 16. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 7. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 10. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -10. -13. -10. -8. -5. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 20. 19. 18. 20. 24. 26. 29. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.3 37.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 11/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 10.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902023 INVEST 11/25/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 11/25/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 44 47 50 49 36 30 36 32 34 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 41 44 47 46 33 27 33 29 31 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 36 39 42 41 28 22 28 24 26 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 30 33 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT