* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902023 11/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 49 49 48 47 46 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 49 49 48 31 33 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 35 34 30 33 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 25 23 20 25 29 31 28 33 40 40 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 6 1 0 0 -1 2 6 6 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 218 224 212 207 221 229 257 279 294 296 302 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.3 22.8 21.2 20.7 19.1 17.4 15.7 16.4 16.8 23.7 23.8 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 93 86 85 80 76 72 74 76 101 101 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.2 -59.3 -59.3 -59.7 -59.8 -60.0 -60.1 -59.4 -57.9 -56.5 -56.4 -57.0 -58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 51 49 52 57 53 49 49 44 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 16 17 17 19 16 13 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 53 38 36 41 34 12 27 66 35 15 -16 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 30 21 64 94 48 23 5 -15 -46 -46 -150 -311 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 16 14 17 16 12 -7 -7 -19 -14 2 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2001 1898 1798 1732 1634 1256 836 419 23 -198 190 83 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.7 33.7 35.0 36.4 39.3 41.7 42.8 42.7 41.6 39.6 37.8 36.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.1 32.6 31.0 29.4 27.8 24.0 19.3 14.4 9.3 3.6 -2.6 -8.6 -14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 19 20 22 20 18 20 24 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 17 CX,CY: 13/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 8. 13. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13. 16. 16. 16. 14. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. -1. -6. -11. -16. -18. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.6 34.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902023 INVEST 11/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.23 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 9.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902023 INVEST 11/25/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 45 49 49 48 31 33 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 42 46 46 45 28 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 40 40 39 22 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 31 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT