* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GSTEST AL852024 04/17/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 79 75 71 60 65 71 78 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 79 75 71 60 65 71 78 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 75 67 62 56 59 62 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 26 28 28 28 36 20 12 22 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -1 -2 0 4 4 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 269 269 265 269 276 263 252 262 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.4 15.3 14.8 11.3 6.9 6.6 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 69 68 68 68 71 72 71 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -55.9 -55.9 -56.7 -57.0 -55.8 -55.1 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 4.2 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.4 1.1 2.1 2.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 57 55 59 67 78 86 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 8 14 17 19 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 122 113 97 81 64 61 10 58 66 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 26 10 26 16 -2 49 53 -15 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 5 8 13 31 11 -24 82 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1697 1785 1842 1806 1745 1639 1541 932 114 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.2 39.9 40.4 40.9 41.6 44.0 49.2 56.4 63.7 69.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.1 30.3 31.2 31.9 32.2 32.1 31.9 30.6 25.0 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 8 19 33 38 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -6. -12. -16. -19. -22. -28. -33. -40. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -5. 2. 11. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 18. 22. 24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -4. -2. -0. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -10. -14. -25. -20. -14. -7. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 39.2 29.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL852024 GSTEST 04/17/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -20.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL852024 GSTEST 04/17/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 4( 20) 0( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 79 75 71 60 65 71 78 78 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 79 75 71 60 65 71 78 78 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 77 73 62 67 73 80 80 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 71 60 65 71 78 78 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 55 60 66 73 73 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 59 64 70 77 77 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT