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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data
indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50
knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern
semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat
ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.

The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in
the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of
warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows
the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does
the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into
the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose
tropical characteristics thereafter.  The NHC intensity forecast is
very similar to the consensus of the models.

Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt.  The synoptic reasoning
from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely
accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.
Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114756.shtml?
inundation#contents

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 29.1N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 30.1N  78.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 31.5N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 33.5N  76.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 36.0N  74.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 42.0N  66.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 47.0N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  07/1200Z 51.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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