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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes are once again
sending data from Arthur. The data suggest that the cyclone is
gradually strengthening and the wind field is expanding. Satellite
images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized
with an eye feature surrounded by moderate convection. Based on the
above information, the initial intensity has been increased to 60
knots at this time. There is still some mid-level dry air in the
vicinity of Arthur that is currently limiting significant
intensification. However, given an otherwise favorable environment
of warm water and weak wind shear, the NHC forecast calls for
Arthur to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. Global
models, primarily the ECMWF and the GFS intensify the cyclone
significantly, and also expand the wind field as the center moves
near the North Carolina coast.

Arthur has been steered northward or 360 degrees at 6 knots,
steered by a weak flow on the western side of the subtropical
ridge. In about 24 hours, the cyclone will recurve and
move northeastward with increasing speed as it becomes embedded
within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Since most of the
guidance has shifted a little bit to the west, the official
forecast was adjusted westward, and it now brings the core of
Arthur close to the coast of North Carolina. This prompted
the issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 29.7N  79.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 30.7N  79.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 32.4N  78.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 34.5N  76.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 37.2N  72.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 43.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 49.0N  59.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  07/1800Z 53.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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