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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane
indicate that Arthur is rapidly losing tropical characteristics. The
low-level center is now displaced from the convection, and the rain
shield has expanded significantly toward the northwest. However,the
circulation is still vigorous given that there was a peak wind of
83 knots at 850 mb reported by the Air Force plane. These strong
winds are not reaching the surface, and the initial intensity is set
at 60 knots based on SFMR reports. Arthur should complete
extratropical transition later today and should weaken.

Arthur has slowed down as anticipated and is moving toward the
northeast at 19 knots. The cyclone should continue on this
general track steered by the southwesterly flow ahead of a
mid-latitude trough. In fact, most of the global models show Arthur
becoming associated with this trough in about 12 to 24 hours.

Both intensity and track forecasts during the post-tropical
stage have been adjusted based on input from the OPC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 43.1N  66.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 45.5N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  06/0600Z 47.0N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  06/1800Z 49.5N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  07/0600Z 52.5N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  08/0600Z 60.0N  51.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/0600Z 58.5N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0600Z 62.1N  43.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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