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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014

The cloud pattern is a little more organized, and microwave data
suggest that the center is more embedded within the deep convection.
Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB,TAFB and objective
numbers from CIMSS the winds are increased to 40 kt. This intensity
is confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass.

The cyclone has a large low-level circulation and the upper-level
outflow has improved.  Most of the global models as well as SHIPS
suggest a decrease in the wind shear during the next few days.
In addition, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously
warm water. This should result in gradual strengthening as indicated
in the NHC forecast, which in fact is very close to the intensity
consensus model ICON.

The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 knots steered
by the flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
A gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast in about 3 to
4 days when the ridge weakens. The NHC forecast is basically on top
of the multi-model consensus, which has remained in place from 06
to 12 UTC. The guidance in general is tighly clustered, increasing
the confidence in the track forecast.

The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft is dropping numerous sondes
near and around Edouard and these data are being ingested by
global models to help with the initialization.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 18.5N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 19.2N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 20.5N  46.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 21.8N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 23.0N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 26.0N  54.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 28.5N  56.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 32.0N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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