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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014

Convection associated with Edouard has blossomed this afternoon. The
cloud pattern has become more symmetric, and the outflow is fair
toward the northwest. The initial intensity has been increased to 50
kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The low shear, in
combination with a pool of anomalously warm waters ahead of Edouard,
should result in strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for the
cyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday or early on Monday. The
intensity forecast is very close to the consensus ICON.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
310 degrees at 11 kt.  The cyclone's motion is being controlled by
the subtropical ridge to its north. It appears that this ridge
is a little stronger, and that pattern supports keeping Edouard on
a west-northwestward to northwestward course for the next 2 to 3
days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken and move
eastward, allowing Edouard to turn north and then recurve into the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-
model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in turning the
cyclone northward over the central Atlantic for the past several
model cycles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 22.5N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 23.7N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 25.0N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 26.4N  53.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 27.6N  55.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 31.0N  57.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 36.0N  54.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 42.0N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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