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SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

As the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exited through
an area of very deep convection in the northwestern quadrant of
Fay, they found a peak 5,000 ft flight-level wind of 75 kt and peak
SFMR winds in the 50-55 kt range. Based on these data, this special
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 50
kt, which could be a bit conservative. The aircraft also found that
the central pressure had fallen to 1000 mb on their last pass
through the broad center. The intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward through 36 hours, and shows the possibility for some
additional strengthening before gradual weakening begins after 24
hours.

Aircraft fixes and satellite imagery suggest that the initial
motion is 340/10, a bit to the right of the previous track. Based
on this, the 12-hour forecast position has been nudged a little to
the east, but no changes were made to the NHC track at 24 hours and
beyond.

Note that this special advisory takes the place of the scheduled
800 PM AST...0000 UTC...intermediate advisory. The next advisory
issued on Fay will be the full advisory package at 1100 PM
AST...0300 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2330Z 25.2N  64.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 26.0N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 28.5N  65.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 31.7N  63.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 33.7N  60.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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