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SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

The cloud pattern of Fay features an area of deep convection
displaced northwest of the low-level center by about 30 kt of
southerly shear and a fractured convective band well east of the
center. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on the earlier
aircraft data. Overall, the cloud pattern looks more tropical than
it did a few hours ago, and Fay will likely transition to a
tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Given that the shear is
expected to continue, only limited intensification is shown in
the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by slow weakening until the
cyclone is absorbed after 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast
is close to the latest IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 345/11, as Fay continues to move
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. There is no
change to the track forecast philosophy, with Fay expected to turn
northward in the next 12 to 24 hours and then recurve into the
mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is a little to
the right of the previous one through 24 hours based on the initial
position and motion, and is largely an update of the previous
forecast after that time. The NHC forecast is close to the latest
dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 25.9N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 27.7N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 30.8N  64.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 33.9N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 36.6N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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