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SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

It appears that Fay is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics
as the convection becomes more symmetric and getting closer to the
center, but it is not quite tropical yet.  There is a small window
of opportunity for Fay to transition to a tropical cyclone during
the next 6 to 12 hours before the shear increases further. There
is no data to change the winds at this time, and the initial
intensity is kept at 50 kt. Another reconnaissance flight is
scheduled for later this morning. Only a slight strengthening is
anticipated before the system becomes absorbed by a strong cold
front in about 48 hours as indicated by most of the global models.

The initial motion estimate is 355/10. Fay continues to move
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, and is
expected to continue northward for 6 to 12 more hours. It should
then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in
forward speed. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one, and follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 26.7N  64.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 29.1N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 32.2N  63.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 35.0N  59.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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