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TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

Fay's cloud pattern is that of a sheared cyclone, with deep
convection bursting west of the center and little in the way of
banding features. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the cyclone this evening found peak flight-level winds
of 79 kt at 5,000 ft, but these were in an area of limited deep
convection southeast of the center. Several SFMR winds of around 55
kt in the convection support maintaining the initial intensity at 60
kt for this advisory. The central pressure fell to 988 mb just
before 0000 UTC, but ticked up to 989 mb on the final aircraft fix.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Fay has turned to the east of due
north, with an initial motion of 010/15. The cyclone should
continue to accelerate northeastward and then east-northeastward
into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24 hours. The new
NHC forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus and the
previous official forecast, taking the center of Fay just east of
Bermuda overnight tonight. This track will place the island in a
region with some of the strongest winds and deepest convection
associated with the storm.

Little change in intensity is expected during the next 12 to 24
hours as Fay will continue to be embedded within a high shear
environment. By 36 hours, Fay should be absorbed into a frontal
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 30.9N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 32.7N  63.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 34.6N  58.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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