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TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
500 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

The area of cold cloud tops associated with Fay has expanded
overnight, but radar imagery from Bermuda indicate that the
overall convective structure of the cyclone has not changed much.
Surface observations and the radar data show that the center of Fay
has passed over the island within the past hour.  Subsequently, a
minimum pressure of 986 mb was reported at Bermuda airport observing
station.  The initial wind speed remains 60 kt and is based on the
earlier aircraft and ASCAT data, and the 06z Dvorak classifications
from SAB and TAFB. Little change in strength is expected during the
next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, Fay is expected to merge with
a frontal zone and become extratropical. The global models now keep
the post-tropical cyclone a distinct feature along the frontal zone
a little longer, so the new NHC forecast delays dissipation until
around 48 hours.

Fay has not turned quite as sharp as predicted.  The initial motion
estimate is north-northeastward or 015/17 kt.  Fay should turn
northeastward later this morning, and then accelerate
north-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerly flow over the
Atlantic tonight through Monday.  The updated NHC track is a little
north of the previous track and near the middle of the tightly
clustered guidance models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 32.4N  64.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 34.2N  61.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 35.8N  55.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  13/1800Z 36.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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