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TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

Fay is well on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone or even
dissipating within a frontal zone. Satellite images and surface
observations indicate that a cold front is located just to the west
of Fay, and cold air stratocumulus clouds are wrapping around the
western side of the system.  In addition, deep convection is now
displaced well to the northeast of what passes for a low-level
center.  The Florida State University cyclone phase evolution
analyses indicate that Fay has a warm core, which is the reason why
it is still designated as a tropical storm, but it won't be one for
much longer.  The initial wind speed is lowered slightly to 50 kt,
following the decrease in the satellite intensity estimates.

The storm is moving quickly eastward at about 25 kt as it is
embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow.  Assuming it maintains a
closed circulation, a continued eastward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 34.1N  52.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 33.7N  48.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  14/1200Z 32.9N  44.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  15/0000Z 32.2N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  15/1200Z 31.8N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  16/1200Z 32.0N  29.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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