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TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...RETRANSMITTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

Convection has been gradually filling in near the center and taking
on a more pronounced banding structure during the past few hours.
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30 kt at 1200 UTC, but
the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates are running around 40 kt.
In addition, recent AMSU intensity estimates yielded 38 kt and 44
kt.  Based on the higher objective numbers, and the overall increase
in convective organization since 1200 UTC, the depression is being
upgraded to Tropical Storm Amanda at this time.  The initial
intensity is set at 35 kt based on a consensus of the subjective and
objective numbers.

Amanda's initial motion is a slow 295/4 kt.  The storm is located to
the southwest of a fairly weak mid-level anticyclone over central
Mexico and to the south of a large deep-layer low over southern
California.  The anticyclone is forecast to weaken during the next
couple of days, while the deep-layer low slides almost due eastward
across the southwestern U.S.  As a result, Amanda is expected to
remain in weak steering flow, and its motion should remain less than
5 kt during the next 5 days.  Amanda is now expected to turn
northward by day 5 due to mid-level ridging redeveloping over
Mexico and a mid-level low forming near 130W.  The GFS has had the
most dramatic shift in track since yesterday and now shows Amanda
turning northward by the end of the forecast period.  The updated
NHC forecast has been shifted a bit to the right of the previous
one now that there is a little more agreement among the models on a
northward turn.

Amanda is expected to remain in a relatively light-shear
environment for the next 3 days or so, and therefore at least
gradual strengthening is anticipated.  Although upwelling of
cold water could be a concern due to Amanda's slow forecast motion,
upper ocean heat content is expected to increase along the
cyclone's path.  Due to these favorable conditions, the SHIPS RI
index still supports a significant potential (about a 50 percent
chance of a 25-kt increase over the next 24 hours) of rapid
intensification.  All of the models have been trending toward a
higher peak intensity, led by the SHIPS and GFDL, which both make
Amanda a hurricane by 48 hours.  The new NHC forecast is not quite
that aggressive, but it does now show Amanda reaching hurricane
strength in about 3 days or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 10.9N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 11.1N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 11.5N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 11.7N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 11.9N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 12.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 13.5N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 15.0N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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