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TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

Visible and microwave imagery suggest that Amanda's low- and
mid-level circulation centers may be offset from each other due to
some southerly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS.  However, convective
banding continues to increase, and overall the system is taking on a
more circular appearance.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
have risen to T2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is held
at 35 kt for this advisory.  With relatively light shear and sea
surface temperatures around 29C, Amanda is forecast to continue
strengthening at least for the next 3 days or so.  The intensity
guidance has trended upward, and the LGEM and HWRF have now come in
line with the SHIPS and GFDL models by showing Amanda reaching
hurricane status in a few days.  The SHIPS RI index continues to run
high, and several of the models suggest that Amanda could reach
hurricane strength by 36 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast has been
bumped upward, but further modifications may be required in future
advisories if faster intensification appears to be setting in.

Amanda is moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak
mid-level anticyclone centered over Mexico, and the initial motion
is 290/3 kt.  With the anticyclone expected to weaken further,
Amanda is likely to creep west-northwestward for the next 2 to 3
days.  The global models indicate that a mid-level low will form
along 130W by day 3, and that feature should help turn Amanda toward
the north at a slightly faster speed by the end of the forecast
period.  With the exception of the HWRF model, the remainder of the
track guidance agrees on this slow northward turn.  The track
guidance envelope has contracted a bit, and no significant changes
to the previous NHC track were required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 11.0N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 11.2N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 11.6N 110.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 11.8N 110.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 12.0N 111.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 12.5N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 14.0N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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