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TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

Amanda has continued to become better organized during the past 6
hours, with the system now showing a well-defined central dense
overcast and increasing outer convective banding.  Satellite
intensity estimates are 55 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB.  In
addition, Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates from CIMSS are
near 60 kt, and a recent AMSU intensity estimate from CIRA was 76
kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, and
this could be conservative.

The initial motion estimate is 295/04.  There is little change to
the track forecast or the track forecast reasoning.  Amanda is
moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico. This current slow motion is expected to
continue for the next 24 hours or so. A turn toward the northwest is
shown around 36-48 hours, with a slight northward acceleration
expected late in the period as the ridge restrengthens to the east
and a mid/upper-level trough approaches from the west.  The new
forecast track is similar to, but slightly faster than, the
previous track.

The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 50-70
percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours,
with Amanda expected to remain over warm water in a light vertical
wind shear environment.  The SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, and Florida State
Superensemble models also call for rapid strengthening.  Based on
this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification for
24-36 hours, and it is possible that Amanda could strengthen more
than currently forecast.  After 48 hours, a combination of
increasing shear caused by the approaching trough and decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady to
rapid weakening.  The new intensity forecast is a little stronger
than the previous forecast through 48 hours, and after that it shows
a faster weakening than the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 11.4N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 11.9N 110.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 12.2N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 12.7N 111.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 15.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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