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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Thunderstorm activity associated with Cristina has decreased in
coverage and intensity since the evening diurnal convective
minimum.  Inner core convection has also become less organized,
and banding is now less defined. A 0348 UTC ASCAT overpass showed
around 30 kt winds, and a blend of satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB is slightly lower than six hours ago.  The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity from the
previous advisory, though this may be a bit generous.

The initial motion estimate is a slow 275/03.  The track forecast is
generally straightforward. Cristina is about to move out of a weak
steering environment and move westward under the influence of a
building mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico at a faster
forward speed.  By 48 hours...the cyclone is expected to turn west-
northwestward when it reaches the western end of the same mid-level
ridge.  The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and
the GFS solution but not as far left as the ECMWF.

UW-CIMSS shear analyses and SHIPS model output indicate light to
moderate northerly shear currently over the cyclone which could be
interrupting further development.  However, global models show
Cristina moving into a moist and generally light shear environment
while moving over warm waters during the next couple of days, all of
which should promote intensification to hurricane strength.  In
about 48 hours, the cyclone should begin to ingest a pool of drier
and more stable air to the west which should bring an end to any
further strengthening.  An even drier and more stable environment,
an increase in southwesterly shear, and marginally warm waters
late in the forecast period should contribute to a weakening trend.
The NHC intensity forecast is below the previous one, close to
the multi-model consensus through 72 hours but near the LGEM beyond
that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 15.6N 102.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 15.6N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 15.7N 105.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 16.1N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 17.3N 109.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 18.4N 112.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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