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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Cristina is intensifying this evening.  The compact central dense
overcast has become more circular, and hints of an eye have been
apparent in geostationary satellite images.  The initial
intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with unanimous Dvorak
classifications of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.

Although the curved bands beyond the inner-core region remain
fragmented, a considerable amount of lightning has been occurring
in a rain band located about 120 n mi to the south-southwest of the
center.  Recent research has documented that lightning in the
outer bands of the tropical cyclone circulation is often a precursor
of significant intensification.  The only apparent factor that could
limit strengthening during the next couple of days is mid-level dry
air, which has been an issue for Cristina during the past day or so.
In about 3 days, Cristina is expected to move into an environment of
stronger southwesterly shear and over cooler waters, which should
end the strengthening trend and cause the cyclone to weaken.  The
NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and
is pretty close to the intensity model consensus IVCN.

Cristina has wobbled a little south of due west during the past 6
hours, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/5.  A westward
to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so
while the cyclone remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge
over northwestern Mexico.  After that time, a turn to the northwest
is predicted when the ridge weakens and shifts eastward.  The NHC
track forecast is an update of the previous one, and close to a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 15.2N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 15.4N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 16.5N 107.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 17.2N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 18.7N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 19.6N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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