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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Cristina has weakened during the last several hours.  The eye has
lost definition and is now barely apparent in satellite images.  In
addition, the cloud pattern has become asymmetric with the
convection being eroded to the west of the center, likely due to
mid-level dry air and some westerly shear.  Dvorak intensity numbers
from all agencies are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is
lowered to 105 kt based on those estimates.  Cristina is expected to
continue weakening as it moves toward a more hostile environment,
including progressively colder waters during the next several days.
The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one to account
for the observed weakening, and is in good agreement with the
intensity model consensus IVCN.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt.  A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days as Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico.  After that time, the weakening and shallower
system should turn westward steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC
track forecast is once again nudged northward following the trend in
the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 17.3N 108.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 18.0N 109.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 18.8N 110.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 19.8N 112.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 20.0N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 20.0N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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