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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014

After going through a remarkable rapid intensification yesterday,
Cristina has now rapidly weakened at a similar rate.  Microwave
imagery suggest that the eyewall is about 50 percent open, and
only occasional hints of an eye can be seen on conventional
satellite data.  The initial wind speed is lowered to 90 kt as a
blend of the Dvorak estimates.  However this value is more uncertain
than normal owing to a rather large spread in the satellite
intensity estimates from various agencies.

Decreasing SSTS, along with increasing shear and dry air aloft,
should generally continue to weaken Cristina.  Most of the models do
suggest a slower weakening rate than what has recently been
observed, which seems reasonable since the environment isn't
extremely hostile.  The NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the
previous one, mostly to account for the steep drop in the initial
wind speed, and is close to the intensity consensus.   Transition
into a remnant low seems likely in about 3-4 days when Cristina is
surrounded by very dry air and over cool waters.

The cyclone is now moving to the northwest at about 7 kt.  A
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next day or two while Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge
over northern Mexico.  After that time, the weakened storm should
turn westward, steered primarily by the low-level flow.  The only
notable change to the track guidance on this cycle is that Cristina
continues the west-northwestward motion for a little longer before
taking the westward turn.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted
slightly to the north beyond 48 hours, following the trend in the
latest guidance, but is otherwise virtually unchanged.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 17.7N 109.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 18.3N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 19.0N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 19.8N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 20.2N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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