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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014

Conventional satellite imagery shows that Cristina's inner core
convection has become somewhat better organized and colder than
six hours ago.  The eye is also slightly better defined and
warmer, though it was cloud-filled in last-light visible images.
A 0045 UTC SSMIS overpass revealed that a new inner eyewall had
developed but was partially open to the southwest.  Although Dvorak
CI- and Final-T numbers were a consensus 4.5/77 kt at 00z, the
initial intensity is kept at 80 kt, owing to the slight increase in
organization of the the cloud pattern since the last advisory.
Despite the recent uptick in organization, gradual weakening is
indicated by the intensity guidance during the day or two as
Cristina encounters increasing southwesterly shear and moves over
cooler waters.  Rapid weakening is likely by 48 hours, when the
cyclone reaches a hostile environment of sea surface temperatures
lower than 25C, greater than 20 kt of southwesterly shear, and
a substantially drier and more stable air mass.  The NHC intensity
forecast is little changed from the previous one except to show
remnant low status a day sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 310/06.  Global models show Cristina
being steered around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical
ridge over northwestern Mexico in the short term.  This feature is
forecast to weaken during the next couple of days as a longwave
trough becomes established over the western United States and
extreme northern Mexico.  This pattern should cause the forward
speed of the cyclone to decrease while the the circulation weakens
and becomes more shallow.  The shallow vortex should turn westward
by 72 hours and move little as it becomes embedded in region of weak
low-level steering.  Given the good model agreement, the NHC
forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and very near the
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 18.9N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 19.3N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 20.1N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 20.4N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0000Z 21.2N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z 21.2N 118.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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