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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014

Cristina's convective pattern continues to degrade, with the
remaining deep convection located to the north and northeast of the
low-level center. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt based
on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates
and data from a 1730 UTC ASCAT overpass. Moderate vertical shear and
an increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic environment should result
in continued weakening to tropical depression status in about 24
hours. Cristina is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours and
dissipate entirely by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted downward toward the new IVCN intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 305/05, and a general northwestward
to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue as the
weakening cyclone is steered around the southwestern side of the
subtropical ridge for the next couple of days. By day 3, the remnant
low should gain a little more latitude as it moves into a weakness
in the ridge. The official track forecast is a little north of
and faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest TVCE
multi-model consensus.

The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the
aforementioned ASCAT pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 19.7N 111.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 20.1N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 20.6N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 21.1N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1800Z 21.7N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1800Z 23.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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