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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

Although Cristina has been devoid of deep convection for about 12
hours now, shallow to moderate convection has encircled the cyclone
center with some cloud tops to -30C located about 60 nmi north of
the center. Given that Cristina is moving westward over SSTs near
27C, tropical storm status is being maintained for this advisory in
the event that convection redevelops near the center later this
morning. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on an average of
satellite current intensity estimates of 35 kt from both TAFB and
SAB, 31 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, and 36 kt from CIRA-AMSU.

Cristina has been moving westward, or 270/05 kt, for the past 6
hours. However, this is likely only a temporary wobble due to the
mid- and upper-level circulations having decoupled and sheared out
to the north and northeast. The consensus of the model guidance
calls for Cristina and its remnant circulation to gradually turn
toward the west-northwest later today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Monday as the cyclone moves slowly toward a developing
weakness in the subtropical ridge. The official forecast track is
slightly to the left of the previous advisory to account for the
more westward initial position.

Water vapor imagery indicates that the small, cold upper-low that
has induced southwesterly wind shear across the cyclone has recently
become juxtaposed with Cristina's low-level circulation. Although it
is doubtful that the tropical storm will regenerate into a
vertically deep cyclone as a result of this short-lived interaction,
the cold air aloft associated with the upper-low could temporarily
enhance the develop of some convection near the center today before
Cristina moves over sub-26C SSTs. Otherwise, a gradual spin down of
the cyclone is expected over the next 72 hours, and the official
intensity forecast calls for Cristina to become a post-tropical low
later today and dissipate in about 3-4 days, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 19.8N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 20.2N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z 20.9N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z 22.2N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z 23.3N 117.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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