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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014

The tropical cyclone remains rather broad and sprawling early this
morning, with some deep convective banding features trying to
develop.  Data from an ASCAT overpass suggests that the system does
not yet have strong winds very close to the center, and that it is
below tropical storm strength.  This is also in agreement with
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The current intensity
is held at 30 kt based on those estimates.

The depression continues to move fairly quickly toward the
west-northwest, or about 290/14, due to a strong mid-level high
pressure area that is currently situated to the north of the
cyclone.  Global models predict that this high pressure area will
shift westward during the next few days, with a mid-level weakness
developing to the north of the tropical cyclone later in the
forecast period.  Consequently, the system should gradually slow its
forward speed within the next couple of days.  The official track
forecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close to the
latest ECMWF solution.

The broad nature of the cyclone and lack of an inner core argues
against any rapid strengthening.  Nonetheless, vertical shear is
forecast to remain low and the system will be traversing
sufficiently warm waters to allow for strengthening during the next
few days.  The official wind speed forecast is very similar to the
latest Decay-SHIPS guidance through 72 hours and close to the
intensity model consensus thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 15.3N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 16.0N 110.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 17.2N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 17.6N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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