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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Satellite pictures show that the cloud pattern of the cyclone has
gradually been increasing in organization this morning.  A large
band consisting of very cold-topped convection covers the western
semicircle of the circulation, and deep convection has also begun
to develop around the center in what appears to be the beginnings
of an inner core. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates remain at
2.0 from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity estimate is
kept at 30 kt for this advisory.  However, recent trends suggest
that the depression is very near tropical-storm strength.

The center position has been difficult to determine, which, in
turn, makes the depression's initial motion rather uncertain. A
smoothing of the latest fixes suggests that the cyclone continues
to move quickly toward the west-northwest, or 295/14, due to a
strong subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. Global
models show a weak mid- to upper-level trough extending southward
offshore of the California coast during the next few days, which
is forecast to cause this ridge to weaken.  This change in the
steering pattern should result in a substantial reduction in the
cyclone's forward speed with the track bending toward the west once
the circulation becomes more shallow in nature.  The NHC forecast
track is quite a bit faster and to the right of the previous one,
primarily due to the re-location of the center based upon
first-light visible images. The forecast track lies on the far left
side of the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF solution.

Environmental conditions are favorable for strengthening during the
next couple of days, but the large size and slow evolution of the
inner core of the depression suggests that only gradual
intensification is likely to occur.  Beyond that time, the
cyclone should reach cooler waters and move into a somewhat drier
and more stable air mass, which should bring a halt to any further
strengthening. The large-scale conditions should not, however, be
hostile enough to cause a rapid decay of the cyclone, so only slow
weakening is indicated late in the forecast period.  The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to
the multi-model consensus through 72 hours, but is a little lower
on days 4-5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 16.4N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 17.0N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 17.5N 114.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 18.7N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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