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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014

The satellite appearance of the tropical cyclone has improved
during the past several hours.  Deep convection has increased near
the center and the primary band wraps farther around the southern
and southwestern portions of the circulation.  Dvorak T-numbers are
a consensus 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is
increased to 35 kt.  Douglas becomes the fourth tropical storm of
the 2014 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Although Douglas has recently been moving more westward, the
longer-term initial motion estimate is 295 degrees at 14 kt.
Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward during the next few
days while it remains to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge
that extends from the southwestern United States westward across the
eastern Pacific.  The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next
couple of days which should cause a reduction in forward speed of
the tropical cyclone.  Later in the period, Douglas should turn
westward as it weakens and becomes a more shallow system. Although
the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is
quite a bit of spread later in the period as to how far north
Douglas gets before making the westward turn.  For now, the NHC
track forecast remains along the southern edge of the model
envelope.  This is close to the previous advisory and is in good
agreement with the latest ECMWF.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The main inhibiting
factor is still likely to be the large and sprawling structure of
the cyclone. After that time, Douglas will be moving over gradually
decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
environment.  This should cause gradual weakening and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 16.4N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 17.0N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 17.9N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 18.4N 116.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 18.6N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 18.8N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 18.8N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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