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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Douglas has changed little in organization since the last advisory
package.  The tropical cyclone has some banding features, but
continues to have limited deep convection near its center.  The
current intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and data from an ASCAT overpass.  This is
only slightly below the latest objective Dvorak estimate from
UW/CIMSS.

Latest center fixes show a considerable deceleration, and the
initial motion estimate is 300/8, much slower than previous
estimates.  Apparently there has been a substantial weakening of
the mid-level ridge to the north of Douglas.  The global models
show a slight weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north of the
tropical cyclone for the next 72 hours or so.  This should result
in an even slower forward motion toward the west-northwest or
northwest.  Late in the forecast period, the ridge strengthens
somewhat to the north of Douglas, and this, along with steering
by the low-level flow, should cause the weakening cyclone to turn
toward the west with some increase in forward speed.  The latest
official forecast is slower than the previous one, and quite close
to the newest dynamical model consensus.

The storm is already moving over slightly cooler waters, but there
is well-defined upper-tropospheric outflow over the system.
Vertical shear should remain weak for the next few days, and given
the favorable dynamics, some strengthening is still forecast. The
official wind speed forecast is a little above the latest intensity
model consensus, IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 16.6N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 18.0N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 18.5N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 18.8N 116.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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