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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Douglas has not changed much over
the past few hours, with some broken convective bands seen
southeast and west of the center. A blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT yields
an initial intensity of 40 kt. While the shear is expected to remain
low, Douglas will be moving over cool sea surface temperatures and
into a more stable thermodynamic environment during the next few
days. This should result in a gradual spin down of the large
circulation, and Douglas is expected to weaken to a remnant low by
day 4.

The initial motion estimate is 315/06. As the ridge north of
Douglas weakens later today, the cyclone should slow down and drift
west-northwestward and westward for the next 2-3 days. After that
time, the shallow cyclone will be steered more steadily westward by
the trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is largely an
update of the previous one through the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 18.8N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 19.1N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 19.4N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 19.6N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 19.7N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 20.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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