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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Since the last advisory, deep convection associated with Douglas has
consolidated into a long band wrapping around the western and
southern portions of the broad circulation. As a result, Dvorak
intensity estimates have increased slightly to 3.0/45 kt from TAFB
and SAB, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value is at 2.6/35 kt. A
blend of these data is used to arrive at an initial intensity of 40
kt for this advisory. Even though Douglas is in a nearly shear-free
environment, the cyclone is traversing gradually decreasing sea
surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more stable
air.  Given these negative thermodynamic factors, the intensity
guidance shows a slow decay of the cyclone's winds during the next
few days. The NHC intensity forecast follows this philosophy and is
about the same as the previous one. The forecast is in basic
agreement with the latest multi-model consensus, and still shows
remnant low status on day 3 and dissipation just after day 5.

The latest fixes suggest that the cyclone's forward speed may be
decreasing, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/04.  A
weakness in the subtropical ridge north of Douglas should result
in a further reduction in forward speed, with a possible bend of the
track toward the north-northwest during the next day or so. As the
cyclone becomes shallower, a turn toward the west-northwest and
then the west with some increase in forward speed should occur prior
to dissipation.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the
right on the basis of the latest multi-model consensus but is on the
far left side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 19.2N 115.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 19.5N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.9N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.5N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 21.6N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 21.8N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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