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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014

A flareup of deep convection in the northern semicircle has
developed during the past few hours even though Douglas is now
moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures. A 02/0528 UTC
ASCAT-B overpass indicated a couple of 39-kt wind vectors in the
northwestern quadrant of the cyclone, so the initial intensity is
being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory.

Douglas is moving slowly northwestward or 325/03 kt. Steering
currents surrounding the cyclone are expected to remain weak for
the next couple of days as Douglas remains trapped in a weakness in
the subtropical ridge that extends from Baja California westward
across the eastern North Pacific. As the cyclone weakens over
colder water and becomes more vertically shallow, it should be
steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow by day 3 and
beyond. The track forecast is is similar to the previous
advisory track and is close to the consensus track model TVCE.

Despite the recent aforementioned resurgence in convection and very
light vertical wind shear, Douglas is not long for this world. The
cyclone is currently located over sub-26C SSTs, and the water ahead
of the cyclone only gets colder while the surrounding air mass is
becoming drier and more stable as well. Therefore, gradual weakening
is forecast by 12 hours and beyond, and Douglas is expected to
become a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity
forecast is identical to the previous forecast and closely follows
the intensity consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 19.6N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 19.8N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 20.6N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 21.1N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 22.2N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 23.0N 122.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z 23.0N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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