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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014

Convection associated with Douglas is quickly losing its
organization.  In addition, a 1758 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that
the maximum winds have decreased slightly, and the initial
intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.  Visible satellite
images show that dry and stable air continues to infiltrate into
Douglas's circulation, and along with decreasing sea surface
temperatures, will contribute to additional weakening during the
next couple of days.  Douglas is now forecast to become a tropical
depression in 12 hours and degenerate into a remnant low by 36
hours.

Douglas is creeping north-northwestward with an initial motion of
330/2 kt.  However, the cyclone is expected to turn back to the
northwest later tonight and eventually accelerate to the
west-northwest by 48 hours when mid-level ridging builds over the
western United States.  Low-level ridging is forecast to steer the
remnant low west-northwestward to westward between days 3 and 5.
The track guidance is tightly clustered on this advisory cycle, and
no significant changes were required to the NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 20.0N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 20.6N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 21.0N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 21.5N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z 22.8N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z 24.0N 128.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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