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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014

Conventional satellite imagery shows that a convective band with
-70C cloud top temperatures has persisted over the northeast
portion of the cyclone.  A compromise of the Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT CI supports
holding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory. An
intruding dry and stable thermodynamic air mass and decreasing
sea surface temperatures of less than 25C should induce weakening
through the forecast period.  The cyclone is forecast to
become a depression on Thursday and weaken further into a remant low
near the 36 hr period.

Douglas continues to move north-northwestward, or 330/2 kt, within
the weak steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge extending
across the eastern Pacific from the southwest United States.  A
turn toward the northwest is forecast on Thursday with a slight
increase in forward speed as the aforementioned ridge gradually
strengthens.  By the 36 hour period, Douglas is expected to move
west-northwestward within the low-level tradewind flow as a
remnant low and continue on this general track through the
remainder of the forecast.  The official NHC forecast track is
slightly to the right of the previous advisory and is close to the
TVCE multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 20.2N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 20.4N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 20.8N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 21.3N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 21.9N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z 23.2N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 24.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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