ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014

The center of Douglas is partially exposed to the west of a small
area of deep convection.  Satellite intensity estimates are about
the same as earlier, so 30 kt is kept as the initial wind speed.
Douglas should gradually lose strength over the next few days while
it moves over cold water within a more stable environment.  The
latest NHC intensity prediction is about the same as the previous
one.  Douglas will likely become a remnant low on Friday while it
traverses sub-24C waters.  The low should dissipate in about 4 days
according to the global model guidance.

The depression is moving a little faster toward the northwest at
about 4 kt.  Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build somewhat
over the western United States during the next 48 hours, which
should cause Douglas or its remnants to speed up a little bit.
Model guidance is virtually unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the
latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous
one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 20.9N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 23.7N 121.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 24.8N 123.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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