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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Douglas consists of a tight swirl of low clouds accompanied by
a small curved band of deep convection to the east of the center.
NHC had estimated that the peak winds were 30 knots, but a
recent ASCAT-B pass shows numerous 35-kt wind vectors associated
with the circulation of Douglas. The initial intensity has thus been
adjusted to 35 knots. This does not mean that Douglas has
restrengthened. Instead, the lack of data earlier led us to a lower
wind estimate. Nevertheless, the cyclone is over 24 degree Celsius
water and weakening to a remnant low in a day or so is still
anticipated.

The initial motion is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 5
knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next
24 to 48 hours with a gradual turn to west as the subtropical ridge
to the north of the cyclone builds westward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 21.3N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 21.8N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 22.4N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 23.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 24.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 25.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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