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TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
800 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

Deep convection to the southeast of Hernan's center dissipated a few
hours ago, but a new burst of activity has recently developed to the
north of the center.  Still, subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity
is set at 40 kt based on a blend of these data.  Due to decreasing
sea surface temperatures, increasing atmospheric stability, and
strengthening vertical shear, this new round of convective activity
is likely to be short lived.  Based on the latest intensity
guidance, the updated NHC forecast now shows Hernan weakening to a
tropical depression in about 12 hours and becoming a remnant low by
36 hours.  Dissipation is indicated by day 4, but some of the global
models indicate that it could occur sooner.

The initial motion remains 300/15 kt.  Hernan is forecast to
continue moving west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, but it
should also slow down as it comes under the influence of weaker
low-level flow.  A slow westward motion is expected just before the
remnant low dissipates.  The model consensus TVCE has been trending
a little bit farther north, and the updated NHC track forecast is
nudged in that direction primarily at 48 and 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 22.1N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 24.0N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 24.6N 123.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0000Z 25.0N 124.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z 25.0N 127.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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