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HURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014

The satellite presentation of Iselle has become much better
organized over the past few hours with a warm, well-defined eye and
strong convection in the eyewall.  A special 0500 UTC Dvorak
classification from TAFB had a Data-T value of 6.0, or 115 kt,
with constraints suggesting a slightly lower final wind speed.
CIMSS ADT values have been running near 110 kt for the past six
hours, and this will be used as the initial intensity.

With Iselle's current annular structure, little change in intensity
is foreseen in the near-term.  A slow weakening could begin by late
Monday due to the hurricane encountering a somewhat less favorable
thermodynamic environment.  The official NHC wind speed prediction
has been raised significantly from the previous one through 36
hours due to the stronger initial intensity.  No changes have been
made to the intensity forecast beyond 72 hours at this time.

No changes have been made to the previous forecast track in this
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0600Z 16.0N 135.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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