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HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014

Iselle continues to show an annular hurricane structure with no
outer banding around a symmetric inner core.  Satellite
classifications are about the same as a few hours ago, so the
initial wind speed will remain 110 kt.  Little change in intensity
is likely today while a low-shear environment remains near the
hurricane.  Iselle is likely to experience some shear on Tuesday,
which should start a more consistent weakening. As the cyclone
moves deeper into the central Pacific basin, a combination of dry
air aloft, westerly shear and marginal SSTs should continue the
weakening process.  The latest NHC forecast is somewhat above the
model consensus early on due to the annular structure, but ends up
below the consensus at long range due to the unfavorable
environment described above.

Iselle is moving westward at roughly 8 kt.  This general motion
should continue for a day or so with some acceleration after that
time due to a restrengthening of a ridge over the central Pacific.
Iselle should move more to the west-northwest in a few days due to
the cyclone moving around the southwestern portion of the ridge.
Model guidance has not changed much during the past 6 hours, and
the latest NHC forecast is very close to the previous forecast and
the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 16.0N 135.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 16.1N 136.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 16.1N 138.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 16.3N 140.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 16.9N 142.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 18.5N 148.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 20.6N 155.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 22.7N 160.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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